The Upstream Price Of Photovoltaics Has Stabilized, Why Did The Components Drop Again?

 

Yesterday, the Silicon Industry Branch announced the latest price of silicon materials, and the price rose across the board.

 

The average price of single crystal cauliflower material was 63,200 yuan/ton, up 1.94%; the average price of single crystal dense material was 67,400 yuan/ton, up 2.59%; the average price of re-feeding material was 69,300 yuan/ton, up 2.67%;

 

Looking at silicon wafers again, according to the silicon wafer price data released by the Silicon Industry Branch on July 20, M10 silicon wafers and G12 silicon wafers both increased by 0%, and the average price of N-type 182mm silicon wafers was 2.88 yuan/piece, an increase of 0.35%. Like silicon materials, after entering July, silicon wafers gradually stabilized. To be precise, silicon wafers started to rebound last week.

Therefore, it can be seen from the price trend of photovoltaic upstream silicon materials and silicon wafers that the short-term price drop has come to an end in stages.

 

 

In terms of silicon materials, on the supply side, the sharp drop in the price of silicon materials in the early stage was related to the high inventory. After the previous round of price reductions, the effect of removing the warehouse in July was significant, and the supply pressure on the stock side was relieved; on the incremental side, due to some special reasons, the monthly output of some leading manufacturers was revised down month-on-month, so the pressure on the overall supply side was not as great as in the previous period.

 

On the demand side, because the price of silicon materials continued to drop in the early stage, silicon wafer companies have a strong wait-and-see attitude, trying to wait for the price of the industrial chain to stabilize before purchasing to avoid their own losses. Now that the price is basically stable, the purchase of silicon wafers has also become active.

 

As for silicon wafers, downstream cell shipments have been smooth, prices have also risen, and the purchase demand for upstream silicon wafers has increased, which has also supported the price of silicon wafers in the past two weeks.

At present, the "play" in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain this year has come to an end for the time being. At present, the probability of a sharp drop in silicon materials is not high. The next step is to see the start of downstream demand.

Upstream prices have stabilized, but the decline in components has not yet ended. At present, the prices of silicon materials, silicon wafers, and batteries have rebounded slightly, and only the prices of components are still falling.

 

According to the latest quotation data from Infolink on July 19, the average price of 182mm single-glass PERC modules was 1.31 yuan/W, a decrease of 1.5%; the average price of 210mm single-glass PERC modules was 1.33 yuan/W, a decrease of 1.5%.

 

The average price of 182mm double-glass PERC modules was 1.33 yuan/W, a decrease of 1.5%. The average price of 210mm double-glass PERC modules was 1.35 yuan/W, a decrease of 1.5%.

 

 

Mainly due to the performance pressure of some companies in the semi-annual report and the competition for market share in the second half of the year, the current module competition is more intense.

 

With the stabilization of upstream polysilicon prices, terminal demand has been boosted in July, and the production schedule of modules can also increase by 10% month-on-month. However, it has not yet fully started, and manufacturers still need to compete for orders at low prices, so there is still a possibility of a drop in the short term.

 

According to the latest installed capacity data, in the first half of 2023, the domestic photovoltaic newly installed capacity was 78.42GW, an increase of 154% year-on-year, of which 17.21GW was added in June, a year-on-year increase of 140% and a month-on-month increase of 33%.

 

Generally speaking, in the first half of the year, when the terminal has not yet fully started, the installed capacity has performed well.

 

According to the usual pattern of the photovoltaic peak season in the second half of the year, superimposed on the current price position of the industry chain, the installed capacity in the second half of the year is likely to exceed expectations. The current module price of about 1.3 yuan/W already has the price basis for a comprehensive installed capacity.