Market On The Rise! Brazil's Photovoltaic Installed Capacity Set To Recover Growth By 2025

The Brazilian photovoltaic market has seen significant growth, with the 10th South America International Solar Expo held in São Paulo from August 29 to 31 witnessing an increase in the number of exhibitors and visitors compared to the previous year. While the size of the Brazilian photovoltaic market has slightly contracted this year, it is still expected to maintain its position as one of the world's largest photovoltaic markets.

The 10th South America International Solar Expo featured 530 exhibitors and attracted 50,000 visitors over three days, a substantial increase compared to the 2022 figures of 400 exhibitors and 44,000 visitors. Despite a limited growth forecast for the Brazilian photovoltaic market in 2023, Brazil is poised to remain one of the world's major photovoltaic markets if it can install 11 GW of photovoltaic systems, as it did last year.

In 2022, Brazil added 8.2 GW of distributed photovoltaic systems and 2.5 GW of centralized photovoltaic systems. As of August, Brazil has added 8 GW of photovoltaic systems this year, with 5.2 GW in distributed photovoltaic and 2.8 GW in centralized photovoltaic systems. The market is expected to maintain this level in 2024 and resume growth in 2025. In the long term, there is still significant room for growth in the photovoltaic market, with photovoltaic generation accounting for 15% of Brazil's national electricity structure, and the cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic systems exceeding 23.2 GW, while the capacity of utility-scale photovoltaic systems is 10.4 GW.

While sales of small rooftop photovoltaic systems in Brazil declined in the first half of this year, the market for large distributed photovoltaic projects is heating up. According to the previous regulation (Law No. 14,300), generating facilities exceeding 75 kW can still be connected to the grid until early 2024, providing more favorable conditions for shared generation projects involving multiple users.

Collective projects typically fall into this category, and although they currently account for only 2.67% of the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic systems (622 MW out of 23.2 GW), they already represent 9.88% of the number of consumers eligible for credit (30,000 out of 3 million). According to Brazilian consultancy Greener, this niche market could attract BRL 4 billion (USD 800 million) in investments by the end of 2024.

Despite the heavy tax burden on energy storage batteries in Brazil this year, making it difficult to survive in the market, regulatory recognition and potential remuneration for auxiliary services could incentivize broader adoption of energy storage systems, facilitating services such as distribution network management.

The organizers of the conference are also actively embracing new technologies for future growth and have announced plans to build a new exhibition hall and an electric transportation pillar in 2024.

Florian Wessendorf, Secretary-General of the International Solar Promotion Association, said, "By 2024, 'Smarter South America' will have four pillars: photovoltaic generation, batteries and energy storage systems, energy management, and electric transportation. We will launch Power2Drive and hold a series of exhibitions, conferences, and technical seminars."

In conclusion, the Brazilian photovoltaic market is showing resilience and adaptability as it navigates challenges and seeks opportunities for growth. The sector's future appears promising, with the potential for increased local manufacturing, the expansion of collective projects, and the adoption of energy storage solutions, positioning Brazil as a significant player in the global photovoltaic landscape.

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