New Energy Sales In March: Retail Penetration Rate Exceeds 40%, Are You Still Bearish On Electric Vehicles?

At the beginning of the article, I first brought my memory back to 2021 NIO Day many years ago. In the exclusive interview after the press conference, Li Bin said the famous sentence: "I don't understand why people are still buying fuel vehicles."

 

In an instant, he was criticized by many people.

 

To be objective and fair, his point of view is supported by relevant context, that is, in an environment where energy replenishment is very convenient, the experience of using electric vehicles does surpass that of fuel vehicles.

 

But at that point, although the new energy transformation of China's auto market had shown glimmers of hope, it had by no means ushered in a completely brilliant bloom. Therefore, Li Bin was sprayed all over and was even labeled with many malicious labels. 

 

"This is the thing I regret the most. Now it has become a label for me. I feel like I have become an arrogant, ignorant, and unconventional person. I said the wrong thing because so many oil truck users buy... There must be many reasons for the oil car. I think it is definitely too early to say that."

 

At the media communication meeting at the end of last year, Li Bin responded and apologized for the first time to the views raised on 2021 NIO Day. His words were full of caution, for fear of exposing him to something else.

 

But in my eyes, while understanding him, combined with the increasingly violent transformation speed of China's new energy market, I believe even more firmly: "Li Bin is right!" The trend of electrification transformation is far more violent than imagined.

 

The comprehensive experience of using various new energy vehicles truly surpasses traditional fuel vehicles. The past March, combined with the terminal report card released by the Passenger Transport Association, provided a persuasive argument for the above judgment.

 

Retail penetration rate once again exceeded 40%

 

Without further ado, let's reveal the answer directly.

 

In March, a total of 788,000 new energy passenger vehicles were produced, a year-on-year increase of 25.2% and a month-on-month increase of 84.9%; the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 810,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 31.1% and a month-on-month increase of 81.3%.

 

The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 709,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 29.5% and a month-on-month increase of 82.5%; the export of new energy passenger vehicles reached 120,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 70.9% and a month-on-month increase of 52.8%.

 

Obviously, after experiencing consecutive downturns in January and February, the entire market has experienced a long-suppressed explosion.

 

At the same time, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers reached 37% in March, an increase of 6 percentage points from the penetration rate of 31% in March 2023. Among them, the penetration rate of self-owned brand new energy vehicles reached 51.1%.

 

In March, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded the 40% mark again after November and December last year, reaching 41.6%, an increase of 7.6 percentage points from the penetration rate of 34% in the same period last year. Among them, the penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles reached 63.3%.

 

Focusing our attention further, there were 17 models with wholesale passenger car sales exceeding 20,000 units in March, which was also significantly improved compared to the 5 models in February.

 

They are 78,490 BYD Song, 57,586 Tesla Model Y, 40,569 BYD Qin, 34,830 BYD Seagull, 31,478 Tesla Model 3, 28,964 BYD Destroyer 05, and 28,501 Nissan Sylphy 27,259 Chery Tiggo 8 vehicles, 25,653 Volkswagen Sagitar vehicles, and 24,878 Changan CS75 vehicles.

 

As well as 22,588 units of Chery Tiggo 7, 21,048 units of BYD Dolphin, 20,996 units of BYD Yuan, 20,700 units of Mercedes-Benz C-Class, 20,189 units of Toyota Landa, 20,013 units of BYD Han, and 20,001 units of Volkswagen Lavida.

 

It can be seen from this that with the desperate efforts of the two "big devils" BYD and Tesla, compared with traditional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles have begun to make a comeback. Consumers also used real money to cast their votes.

 

In addition, it is worth noting that taking the wholesale sales in March as an example, the wholesale sales of pure electric passenger cars reached 504,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% and a month-on-month increase of 89.0%; the wholesale sales of plug-in hybrid passenger cars reached 229,000 units. , a year-on-year increase of 84% and a month-on-month increase of 92%. The wholesale sales of extended-range passenger vehicles reached 76,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 103% and a month-on-month increase of 26%.

 

The shares of the three are respectively: 62%, 28%, and 10%. For reference, the shares of the three in the same period last year were: 74%, 20%, and 6%. In contrast, for the whole of 2023, the cumulative shares of the three are: 69%, 23%, and 8% respectively.

 

According to the current trend, perhaps because of the "fuel tank", true plug-in hybrids and extended-range passenger cars are still on the rise. Due to various reasons, pure electric passenger cars have fallen into a certain growth bottleneck.

 

Taking the retail sales in March as an example, the share of mainstream independent brand new energy passenger vehicles reached 62%, a year-on-year increase of 3.4 percentage points; the share of joint venture brand new energy passenger vehicles reached 4.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points; the share of new forces It was 11.6%, a year-on-year increase of 2 percentage points; Tesla's share was 7.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7 points.

 

There is no doubt that this time on a new track, it is becoming clear who has the real say.

 

Beijing Auto Show, another key node

 

At the beginning of this paragraph, we first quote the latest prediction this year by Wang Chuanfu, Chairman of BYD, "The development of new energy vehicles will only go faster and faster, and will not leave us a chance to stop, slow down, and take a breath."

 

In his eyes, China's new energy vehicle production and sales have ranked first in the world for nine consecutive years, accounting for more than 60% of the world's share. It has formed a complete industrial chain with resilience and competitiveness, and is a representative industry for high-quality development. Therefore, Wang Chuanfu believes that "vehicle electrification will further deepen, and it is expected that the penetration rate in a single month may exceed 50%."

There is no doubt that this is an exciting number.

If it can be reached, considering the large enough base, China's new energy market will usher in another milestone moment. Taking advantage of the trend and looking towards the whole year, we boldly predict that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles will exceed 10 million units and the wholesale penetration rate will exceed 40%, which is basically no problem.

 

As for the rest of the article, what I want to talk about is the Beijing Auto Show that is about to open this month.

 

In my eyes, all car companies will definitely bring out their latest masterpieces at this event. Except for a few joint venture brands that still stubbornly stick to traditional fuel vehicles, the remaining participants will all release electrified products without exception. You will be dazzled by the many heavyweight players.

It is precisely based on this background that after experiencing a slight silence or outright cancellation of the past few editions, this Beijing Auto Show will definitely show everyone a completely different mental outlook and send an increasingly firm signal to the outside world: regardless of recognition, Or not, the future of China's auto market belongs only to new energy vehicles.

 

Of course, when a hundred flowers bloom and compete for beauty, the cruelty of competition will also rise to a higher level.

 

In the view of the Passenger Car Association, the resumption of the Beijing Auto Show will not only focus on displaying new technologies in the industry and new products of enterprises, but also a grand event in the automobile industry to display the new image of the brand, which will inevitably attract widespread attention from the society. The auto show, combined with the implementation of consumption-promoting policies in various places, will surely become a catalyst and trigger point to promote domestic automobile consumption. The performance of auto show orders will be an important indicator of whether the market situation is good or bad.

 

It can be said that the importance of this event is once again highlighted word for word.

 

In short, based on emotions and reasons, we believe that after the end of this year's Beijing Auto Show, new energy vehicles will reach a new level in occupying the purchasing minds of Chinese consumers. Correspondingly, sales data in April will hit a new high.

 

Li Bin's judgment at the beginning of the article will one day become an undisputed reality, "I don't understand why people are still buying fuel vehicles."

 

Don't worry, time will tell soon...

 

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