Without Importing Solar Cells From China, Germany's Energy Transition Will Die

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Germany has hoped to wean itself off oil and gas from Russia, while accelerating wind and solar expansion. China is the world market leader in both technologies, increasing the influence of Chinese manufacturers.
 

Take solar power as an example: by 2030, Germany will install solar cells with a total output of 200 GW. To do this, German roofs must have 140 gigawatts of solar cells installed over the next eight years - almost 17 gigawatts per year. Last year Germany installed 5.46 GW, which will need to double in the future. Currently, German-made solar cells are installed in Germany with an annual output of 2.8 GW, with the rest (almost half) coming from Asia, mainly China. And many German manufacturers, such as Dresden-based Solarwatt, only assemble modules, and their solar cells come from China.

Before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Germany relied on Russia for 55% of its natural gas, and China for 95% of its solar cells. Without China, solar energy would be unimaginable. "We have seen how fast the geopolitical situation is changing," said Volker Kwaschning, an expert at the University of Applied Sciences of Engineering and Economics in Berlin. "Who can guarantee that we will still be able to understand each other with China in five years' time? Get solar cells from there and our energy transition will be dead."

Ten years ago, Germany was the world market leader – from blocks to cells to modules. Then China discovered this future market and started supporting related production. At the same time, Germany's solar feed-in tariffs have been significantly reduced. While German demand plummeted, China took over the market. German manufacturers such as Solar World went bankrupt.

But given that politicians have decided to rapidly expand renewable energy, can German production increase again with new, own production facilities? Dieter Neuhaus, managing director of Dresden-based manufacturer Solarwatt, thinks it is almost too late to do so and it will require a huge investment. The same goes for wind power: German and European suppliers are still the market leaders in Germany, but globally they have long been overtaken by China.

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