Analysis Of The Lithium Battery Market For New Energy Vehicles

In October 2024, the installed capacity of lithium batteries was 59.2Wh, a year-on-year increase of 51%; the installed capacity of ternary batteries was 12.2GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, accounting for 21%, which was lower than the same period; while the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 47GWh, a year-on-year increase of 75%, accounting for 79%; the growth of ternary batteries slowed down. From January to October, the installed capacity of lithium batteries was 406G, a year-on-year increase of 38%.

According to the battery volume of the certificate, the output of new energy vehicle certificate products in October 2024 was 1.28 million units, a year-on-year increase of 51%. From January to October, 8.69 million units, a year-on-year increase of 39%, were relatively strong, including 4.71 million pure electric passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of 18%, 3.53 million plug-in hybrid passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of 81%, and 410,000 pure electric special vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 46%. Such production data is still relatively good.

In the past two years, the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries have been highly prosperous, the demand for batteries and aluminum battery case has grown rapidly, and the proportion of batteries for new energy vehicles has declined. Due to the slowdown in the growth of the export electric vehicle market, the growth of battery installation demand for electric vehicles continues to be slower than the growth of the total number of domestic vehicles. Due to the high prices of nickel and cobalt, the differentiated growth of ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries has been formed. With the growth of long-range products, ternary batteries still have a market, and price cuts have driven the total share of lithium iron phosphate batteries to continue to rise. Due to the adjustment of the tax-free policy to increase the range of electric vehicles in the first half of this year, low-end small and micro electric vehicles have shrunk, pure electric vehicles have been weak, and extended-range and plug-in hybrid vehicles have continued to strengthen. However, the scrapping and renewal of passenger vehicles in July and the implementation of the old-for-new policy in September have been significantly beneficial to micro electric vehicles. Pure electric vehicles grew strongly from September to October, and the proportion of batteries with 125-140 watt-hours per kilogram increased significantly.

With the development of industries such as energy storage, the demand for batteries aluminum battery box in industries such as energy storage has grown rapidly, resulting in a significant decline in the proportion of batteries installed in vehicles, but the strong market sales in October brought an increase in the proportion. Both power batteries and energy storage batteries are under relatively high pressure due to overproduction and inventory. The growth rate of power batteries in 2021 and 2022 will be lower than that of complete vehicles. The installation of power batteries in 2024 will be low, and battery production will be the same as the growth rate of installation.

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