New Materials: Supporting The High-quality Development Of New Energy

New energy materials are the cornerstone of the new energy industry. Zhang Songchen, assistant general manager of China Chemical Information Consulting and president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Circular Economy Research Institute, said that the market prospects for new chemical materials related to new energy industries such as wind power, photovoltaics, hydrogen energy, and lithium batteries are huge. It is expected that my country's new energy industry will have The materials market size exceeds 3 trillion yuan.

In 2023, the world's newly installed wind power capacity will be 115 GW, an increase of 48.2% over the previous year, showing a recovery trend. It is expected that in the next five years, the average annual growth rate of global wind power installed capacity will reach 11.2%, and the growth rate of new offshore wind power installed capacity will be higher than that of onshore wind power.

In 2023, our country's new wind power grid-connected capacity will reach 75.9 GW, an increase of 101.9% over the previous year and reaching a record high. As of 2023, my country's cumulative installed wind power capacity will reach 441.3 GW. It is expected that the average annual growth rate of new installed capacity will reach 5.9% in the next five years, which is higher than the global average annual growth rate of 4.9%. It is estimated that in 2028, my country's cumulative installed wind power capacity will reach 780 GW, of which onshore wind power will account for 83.3% and offshore wind power will account for 16.7%. The average annual growth rate of the country's cumulative wind power installed capacity will be 12.1% in the next five years.

The silicon wafer industry is highly concentrated, with almost all global silicon wafers supplied by my country. In 2022, my country's silicon wafer production capacity and output will account for more than 97% of the world. In 2023, my country's silicon wafer production capacity will be 906 GW/year, an increase of nearly 40% compared with 2022. In the future, large-sized and thin single-crystal silicon wafers will accelerate iteration.

Backplane materials are still mainly imported, and there is huge room for localization. PET base film has high technical barriers and few domestic production companies. Fluorine membranes are mainly imported from abroad, domestic technology has made breakthroughs one after another, and the upstream PVDF (polyvinylidene fluoride) production capacity is highly concentrated. At present, the outer protective materials of mainstream photovoltaic backsheets generally use fluorine-containing materials, mainly PVF (polyvinyl fluoride), PVDF and FEVE (vinyl fluoride and vinyl ether or ester copolymer)

Global lithium battery shipments will reach 1,192 GWh in 2023, and production capacity is still dominated by the Asia-Pacific region. Chinese companies account for six of the top ten companies in terms of shipments.

In 2023, my country's lithium battery shipments will be 885 GWh, accounting for 75% of total global shipments, an increase of 34% over the previous year. Among them, power battery shipments were 630 GWh, an increase of 31%; energy storage battery shipments were 206 GWh, an increase of 59%; digital battery shipments were affected by weak economic growth, with 49 GWh shipments, an increase of only 1%. 

The end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025 may become an inflection point for lithium prices. The current situation of oversupply in the lithium battery industry will continue in 2024, and product prices will continue to remain low overall. Overseas markets have become a new investment direction for lithium battery companies. Faced with the challenges of overcapacity and price competition, the lithium battery materials industry chain will pay more attention to refined production capacity planning and flexible market adjustments. The transformation of new technologies has become a new driving force to boost industry profits.

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