A Word Of Advice: The Best Time To Buy An Electric Car Is The Popularization Of Solid-state Batteries
Apr 19, 2024
Trams are really cheap now. Some trams with an 800V platform and a range of about 600km have been sold for less than 200,000 yuan. If the price war continues, it may soon head towards the 150,000 yuan range. In addition, the level of intelligence of electric vehicles is generally higher than that of gasoline vehicles. This means that the energy consumption, charging efficiency, battery life, smart experience and price of electric vehicles have actually reached a level that is available to users.
However, it is only "available", but not at the level of "easy to use". Why do you say that? Because although car companies will use various inflammatory remarks and black technology selling points when promoting, they will lead cars in the direction of digital products, leading users to think that trams are the best choice, and that the future tram life will be infinitely beautiful. But I still have to tell you that for the vast majority of users, the essence of the purpose of a car is not a computer, a mobile karaoke room, or a large game console, but first of all, it should be a means of transportation for commuting. When buying a car, you must not sacrifice the good for the bad.
So what is the most important thing about a vehicle? Obviously efficiency and convenience. The first reason we buy a car is to expand our range of activities and save our travel time. Even though trams can bring us new experiences in many scenarios, they are still lacking in convenience.
If you just want to travel around the city on a regular basis, the tram is of course very convenient. But when it comes to unexpected travel or long-distance travel, trams are often not that convenient. Even with a pure electric range of 600km, the actual driving price will be discounted by 20%. If you drive on the highway, the discount will be even more severe. Although there are charging stations now in cities and highways, and trams have fast charging, it still takes about ten minutes no matter how fast it is. It is not as convenient as filling up a tank of gas in a few minutes. For the same long distance of several hundred kilometers, it will still take much longer for a tram to run down than a petrol car.
Some people will say that we should plan well before traveling, but many times when we travel, we just hope to be able to go at once. What's more, when the demand for travel increases during the holidays, no matter how good the planning is, it will not help.
You can go wherever you want, go wherever you want, but there are still concerns about trams. This concern has now begun to be gradually reflected in the sales of electric cars. Among the sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter of this year, the growth of pure electric vehicles has slowed down significantly, and the growth rate of plug-in hybrid extended range has increased significantly. The era of rapid growth of pure electric vehicles has passed. Some surveys also show that the "regret rate" of users who purchase pure electric vehicles has increased significantly, which shows that most pragmatic users have finally begun to realize that the battery life and energy replenishment of pure electric vehicles are still a problem that cannot be completely solved.
In terms of distance, long-distance round trips within a province are usually within 500km, and round trips across provinces are generally close to 1,000km. In other words, if the tram wants to be as close as possible to the state of being able to go wherever it wants and go wherever it wants, its true endurance must be about 1,000km.
The energy density of existing liquid batteries has almost reached its peak. If we continue to increase the battery capacity, it will make the vehicle heavier, and the volume does not allow it. Judging from the current technology trends, only when solid-state batteries become popular can the efficiency and convenience of electric vehicles be truly realized.
Compared with liquid batteries, solid-state batteries have higher energy density, longer service life, and more reliable safety performance. This means that solid-state batteries can achieve greater capacity with smaller size and lighter weight. If the battery life of the solid-state battery can exceed 1,000km, then it can be recharged once every month or two, and a single charge can cover a long inter-provincial round trip. Then the user's mileage anxiety and recharge rate will be minimized, and basically it can be achieved. Just go.
In the past few years, some car companies have also promoted semi-solid batteries. For example, in 2022, NIO ET7 announced that it would be equipped with a 150kWh semi-solid battery pack for the first time, with an NEDC battery life of more than 1,000km. But at that time, the cost of even semi-solid-state batteries was still quite high. The cost of one battery was almost the same as that of an ET5. Not to mention the cost of all-solid-state batteries.
However, after entering 2024, more and more car companies will start to popularize solid-state or semi-solid-state batteries.
The Zhiji L6, which was pre-sold not long ago, promoted its own ultra-fast charging semi-solid-state battery, and its 133kWh version was pre-sold for only 330,000 yuan. At the 2024 GAC Technology Days two days ago, GAC launched all-solid-state battery technology, which is expected to be installed on Haopin models in 2026. Previously, Toyota, an international major manufacturer, also stated that it has achieved technological breakthroughs and material solutions to solve the durability of solid-state batteries. It is expected to achieve a cruising range of electric vehicles of 1,200 kilometers, and the charging time will be shortened to less than 10 minutes. The estimated time to get on the car Also between 2027 and 2028.
Major domestic power battery companies have also put semi-solid-state batteries on the agenda. According to incomplete statistics from the media, there are currently more than a dozen domestic and foreign power battery companies including CATL, China New Aviation, Honeycomb Energy, Huineng Technology, Ganfeng Lithium, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High-tech and other domestic and foreign power battery companies. The semi-solid-state battery was laid out and the plan for getting into the car was made clear.
There are various signs that semi-solid-state batteries are already on the way and will gradually become popular in the next year or two. Solid-state batteries also have a clear timetable.
It is now the eve of the widespread mass production of solid-state batteries. With the combat style of our Chinese manufacturers, once semi-solid or solid-state batteries begin mass production and are put on the market, their cost prices will soon be reduced. But now, whether it is lithium iron phosphate or ternary lithium, they are no longer fragrant. Electric vehicles equipped with semi-solid or solid-state batteries are completely different products from current electric vehicles. Due to the size and weight advantages of solid-state batteries, the trams at that time will be better than today's trams in terms of appearance and energy consumption. Only then can electric trains truly be on par with gas trains in terms of efficiency and convenience.
Therefore, friends who are planning to buy a car now, if you just need it and insist on buying a car now, in fact, the price of gasoline cars has dropped to the bottom, which is very popular. You can buy it for a few years and then replace it with an "ultimate form" electric car. At least I won't be stabbed in the back in the next few years. No matter how bad it is, you can just buy a cheap tram for a while and find that the technology is lagging behind after two years, so you won't feel bad about replacing it.
If you have a car now, but plan to embrace the electric car life in the future, then I advise you to wait another year or two until solid-state batteries are available in cars and the price goes up before buying an electric car. By then, the electric car will be used More comfortable and convenient. (Text/Youshi Automobile Lao Pao)
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