The Rush To Mine Is On The Rise Again? How Big Is The Impact Of The Lithium Price Stall?
Dec 06, 2024
As 2024 draws to a close, global demand for lithium batteries and related accessories such as automotive battery aluminum case continues to grow, but lithium prices are still weak and stable. Internationally, Australian mines have successively released information on suspension and reduction of production, conveying a "price-supporting" stance; domestically, the auction price of lithium mines continues to be "crazy", and the transaction price of a mining right is nearly 9,000 times higher than the starting price. How will all these signs affect the price trend of lithium carbonate market? When will the turning point of the lithium mining industry come?
Prices are down and production is mostly reduced
According to the data of the Lithium Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in October, the lithium industry was affected by prices, and enterprises continued the trend of production reduction, and some enterprises gradually resumed production. Lithium prices fluctuated downward, approaching 70,000 yuan/ton, and most enterprises reduced their production. Lithium battery aluminum case, a lithium battery accessory of some companies, also reduced production.
Lithium product prices
In October, domestic lithium carbonate prices fluctuated downward, and the spot price difference of lithium carbonate futures at the end of the month was basically the same as that of the previous month. On October 31, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 72,500 yuan/ton, down 4.0% from the previous month and 53.8% from the same period last year. The closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 73,000 yuan/ton, down 7.1% from the previous month and 48.9% from the same period last year. The month-on-month decline was smaller than the month-on-month decline of lithium carbonate spot. The price difference at the end of the month was 2,450 yuan/ton.
Supply side
In October, the lithium industry was affected by prices, and some companies continued to reduce production, while some companies gradually resumed production. In October, my country's lithium salt production rebounded slightly from the previous month. The national lithium carbonate production was about 56,000 tons, up 10.6% from the previous month; the national lithium hydroxide production was about 30,000 tons, down 19.6% from the previous month; the national lithium chloride production was about 1,737 tons, flat from the previous month; the national metal lithium production was about 317 tons, up 13.2% from the previous month. In October, the national lithium salt production was equivalent to about 86,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), a decrease of 1.0% month-on-month. However, our company still insists on providing customers with lithium battery aluminum case at a very favorable price.
Demand side
The production and sales of batteries and new energy vehicles maintained rapid growth, and the production and installation of power batteries continued to rise. In October, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.43 million, an increase of 11.1% month-on-month and 49.6% year-on-year; the installation of power batteries was 59.2GWh, an increase of 8.6% month-on-month and 51.0% year-on-year. Lithium batteries and aluminum battery case are important components of new energy vehicles.
Lithium product import and export
In October, my country's imports of lithium concentrate increased month-on-month, and imports of lithium carbonate increased month-on-month. Among them, the imports of lithium concentrate from Australia increased month-on-month, and the imports of lithium carbonate from Chile continued to rise. In October, my country imported 23,000 tons of lithium carbonate, an increase of 42.6% month-on-month, and the average import price was 69,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.4% month-on-month. Among them, about 18,000 tons of lithium carbonate were imported from Chile, accounting for about 77%, an increase of 28.2% month-on-month. According to Chilean customs data, my country's lithium carbonate imports from Chile are expected to continue to rise in November.
Conclusion
At present, the price of lithium is still weak and stable. According to SMM data, on December 3, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 77,250-79,250 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
According to the latest statistics, the spot inventory of lithium carbonate is 108,200 tons, of which the smelter inventory is 34,500 tons, the downstream inventory is 29,700 tons, and the other inventory is 44,000 tons. The social inventory of lithium carbonate continues to decline, but the intensity of destocking has continued to slow down, and the huge social inventory is still difficult to destock. Looking ahead to the market, the sales of new energy vehicles at the end of the year will drive the growing demand for upstream power batteries, which may have a positive impact on the rise in lithium carbonate prices.
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